After all, if economists are uneasy about things, best we view their overall sentiment rather than waste our time studying the same economic data that they seem to relish in doing. Sundial publishes the SentimenTrader.com website. Let's assume that the Smart Money Index's value yesterday was 5,000. For month-end September, the PCE core deflator was 1.6%, versus an expected value of 1.8%. As evidenced by the image below, the average holdings of Robinhood traders are up by 1.5% on average. But from a data-driven perspective, the last hour of each day (when the "smart money" supposedly trades, according to this indicator) always sees a spike in volume. Since the most common use is to look "bearish divergences", let's see if the Smart Money Index's "bearish divergences" with the S&P 500 were able to predict major historical market tops.
Maybe it's me still seeking internal amends for the markets from over a decade ago, trying to look under every rock to make sure I'm not smacked in the face by the obvious "of course it didn't make sense that no money down, and lousy credit could get someone a McMansion in 2006". Well, first, 2003 was a solid year for the markets, with returns over 28%. First, we have the strategic bucket, which tends to focus on economic and fundamental themes that we believe might play out over a time frame of 6 months to a year. If the market trends in a different direction than the SMI, then the stock market will eventually mean-revert to the SMI’s direction. And lastly, here's a "bearish divergence" from the 1950s and 1960s. This is our buy and hold (for a while) bucket and would be akin to staying in our lane on the highway and looking further down the horizon. Aberle Investment Management LLC, is a registered investment adviser. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We respect your privacy. We’ve seen smart money selling to dumb money (retail investors) all year. When you look at the reduction in the Fed balance sheet, you can see the decline. This is the case with many popular indicators which have a "smart sounding name" and "smart sounding logic", but when you add up the successes + failures aren't much better than a coin toss. But it also failed spectacularly at other times. We’ve seen smart money selling to dumb money (retail investors) all year. Below is a different view of the indicator; however, this time, the "dumb" sentiment and "smart" sentiment are separated, which helps us to visualize the disparity better.
Where can you get regular updates for the Smart Money Index?
We use both items every day, and yet they exclude them. Meanwhile, the Smart Money Index peaked in August 1999 and had collapsed by March 2000 (bearish divergence). Focusing on the successes & sweeping failures under the rug doesn't do justice to actual traders and investors. You will receive a confirmation email to confirm your interests. With that being said, traders generally use this indicator to "confirm" the stock market's trend or look for "divergences". Between these 2 uses, traders more commonly look for "divergences" since divergences can help traders predict major turning points in the market.
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