what can be done to avoid communications intelligence failures in the future

While policy-makers in Washington analyzed less-than-accurate information from MacArthur’s intelligence services, accurate and timely tactical intelligence helped win battles in Korea that were necessary to provide time for strategic plans to develop. Whether we ultimately decide to retain a national-level community or to compress everything, one change should be implemented immediately.

[3] Inadequate manning and skill sets, erroneous target prioritization, and a failure to integrate tactical collection into strategic analysis all played a role in these missteps. The training time required for wider fungibility is not consistent with a world of rapidly developing crises. This division of labor sounded good in theory, but it has virtually balkanized the Community.

‘A’ items were most important, then ‘B’ items, and finally ‘C’ items.

The world will certainly continue to be messy, and there will be innumerable instances where the United States could choose to engage militarily. By dividing the labor within Defense Intelligence, we have given an increased voice to Command Joint Intelligence Centers (JICs/JAC) and allowed the Service intelligence production organizations to speak virtually for the country on many matters of interest to their particular Service. But waiting is not a viable alternative--at least not one that will work over the long term. And the obvious questions follow: how does the Community ensure it has sufficient analysts to "do the world"; how do we reverse the fragmentation of analysis; how do we ensure fusion and objectivity; and how do we do all this when we are already underinvested in analysis and facing a further decline in manpower?

The 111th Signal Service Company was in Korea up until July 1948 collecting on Soviets located directly across the 38th Parallel. [9] These inadequate personnel numbers, insufficient regional specialists, and failure to work together laid the groundwork for a national structure incapable of providing timely and accurate intelligence to decision-makers. Intelligent failures are those that arise from thoughtful actions or experiments - what we like to call smart risks - and result in useful learning, allowing us to move forward more wisely. We do not routinely respond to questions for which answers are found within this Web site. We read every letter, fax, or e-mail we receive, and we will convey your comments to CIA officials outside OPA as appropriate. The intelligence failure was the result of a policy maker’s determination that intelligence support his preconceived views, not challenge them. Over-Concentration on Strategic Requirements. But we are going to begin making more and bigger mistakes more often.

The seventeen different civilian and military intelligence organizations of the United States vary in coverage (collection targets and methods) and depth (from strategic, to operational, to tactical objectives). U.S. and Republic of Korea (ROK) forces established a defense around the port of Pusan—the Pusan Perimeter—while rushing reinforcements into the line and planning for a counterattack at Inchon. The Office of Public Affairs (OPA) is the single point of contact for all inquiries about the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). As previously indicated, the reality is such that there are good analysts and bad analysts in all the agencies, and, consequently, I believe that the cost of a Community is a worthwhile safeguard. [27] Yufan, Hao and Zhihai, Zhai, “China’s Decision to Enter the Korean War: History Revisited”, in The China Quarterly, No. At a time when we should be reducing overhead, we are increasing such investment in the mistaken belief that we can manage ourselves out of this mess. To meet such a wide variety of needs, our role should be that of an information clearinghouse capable of addressing all the security issues of the early 21st century; as such, we have to maintain worldwide expertise or know enough to know where to get it. At a time when the interrelationship among political, economic, military, social, and cultural factors had become increasingly complex, no agency was postured to conduct truly integrated analysis.

[41] The intelligence gathered was vital to the landings and included the numbers of Chinese personnel crossing the Yalu River, tide times and levels, soil compositions, seawall heights and locations, current flows, and enemy locations.[42],[43].

The primary reports used by senior civilian leaders to make decisions in Korea were Daily Intelligence Summaries (DIS). [36] Tactical HUMINT operations lacked a structure for coordination and intelligence sharing which hindered operations and intelligence sharing. [39] At White Horse Mountain: Tactical HUMINT was exploited throughout the war, especially during the preparation for Inchon. We are underinvested in analysts in favor of the non-substantive functionaries necessary to run the IC's multiple agencies. A functioning intelligence structure encompassing all levels of intelligence is needed to enact this goal. The kind of restructuring that is required will take a huge short-term toll on our effectiveness, and it will take a substantial time for the dust to settle. U.S. official. For threats outside the U.S., contact 4 0 obj

U.S., ROK, and U.N. forces drove a demoralized and unsupplied North Korean army nearly back to the Chinese border. Russia will continue to be a basket case for much of this period, though still assertive and nationalistic. Intelligence Community. The Services retain most scientific and technical responsibilities and analyze the ground, air, and naval forces of Country X, including future systems that X might deploy--even though they have no capacity to compare Country X's interservice priorities or to incorporate defense economic constraint analysis. Perception Bias and Improper Analysis, Marines under cover of large boulder engage enemy forces who were unsuccessful in trapping the Marines | Wikimedia Commons, For years before the war, analysts and officials warned policymakers about the problems in Korea. When communicating They would be welcome to argue their cases, and even include their views in NIEs. Please help spread the word to new readers by sharing it on social media. However, with limited staff and resources, we simply cannot respond to all who write to us.

Consequently, they stand little chance of putting whatever analysis they do into context--a recipe for irrelevance, if not outright failure. (4) When each of these organizations is potentially gilding its own particular lily and the division of labor argument has been used to preclude any capacity for quality control, there is no basis upon which to assess risk objectively. They are perhaps best illustrated by responding to a series of common myths: The very real constraints on IC management in the early 1990s left it with few choices, none of them good. Senior civilian leaders in Washington and senior military leaders in Asia refuted reporting which could have altered the war due to groupthink and preconceived opinions.

professional. Russ Travers works for the Defense Intelligence Agency. With the possible--and increasingly less likely--exception of North Korea, however, the direct major military threats to United States national security interests will be virtually nonexistent for the rest of the decade. Lack of Objectivity. One naval officer, two Korean operatives, and three others landed on Yonghung-do Island west of Inchon and trained guerilla fighters, launched raids, and gathered intelligence.

phone calls, e-mails or other forms of communication, from US citizens living outside of the Congress will bear some responsibility for our forthcoming intelligence failure. Many midlevel managers' priorities are misplaced, and loyalty to one's agency too often has primacy. If we try to tackle an entire Community restructuring in one step, it would entail substantial risk, leaving the United States Government without a fully functioning intelligence apparatus. Now, however, it is time to stop pretending that the current structure can work and start acknowledging the full extent of the problem. [38] This information allowed U.N. forces to defend the 140-mile line with significantly fewer troops and free up more men for the landing at Inchon.

When we do the postmortems and try to reconstruct the broader institutional causes for the failure, we will find them spread throughout the national security apparatus--some a function of this period of history, others a function of mistakes: Executive Branch. Its influence is far greater than its size would suggest. the information via one of the above methods.

US. The most up-to-date CIA news, press releases, information and more. Despite their limited numbers and capabilities, especially at the beginning of the conflict, on-the-ground intelligence assets on the Korean Peninsula provided usable information to supported commanders. Many of the foreign systems in R&D will either be drawn out extensively or die on the vine from lack of procurement dollars.

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